From China Daily:
China's economy expanded 9 percent year-on-year in 2008, the lowest rate since 2001. The nation's gross domestic product for 2008 amounted to 30.07 trillion yuan, according to figures released Thursday morning by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2008 slowed to 6.8 percent year-on-year, the lowest quarterly increase since 1997 Asia financial crisis.
Other economic indicators released together with the GDP include:
l. The consumer price index which measures inflation rose 5.9 percent year-on-year, the highest in 12 years, NBS figures showed.
2. Retail sales expanded 21.6 percent last year. The growth rate is 4.8 percentage points higher than 2007.
3. Industrial output grew 12.9 percent in 2008, down from 18.5 percent in 2007.
4. Fixed asset investment surged 25.5 percent in 2008, up from 24.8 percent in 2007.
5. The economy created 11.13 million new job opportunities in 2008. However, urban registered unemployment rate rose to 4.2 percent last year, up from 4 percent in 2007.
6. Producer price index rose 6.9 percent in 2008, up 3.8 percentage points from 2007.
However, producer price index dropped 1.1 percent in last December, a signal of deflation.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Circles Circles Circles
In the age old dance that is Guan Xi (relationships) one's circle is the base of all relationships. Who one associates with defines one's position. The higher the profile of the circle's participants the higher one's personal stature.
An influential circle can have many different types of members with different backgrounds and different circles of their own. A circle begins with one's family and extended family and widens out to include close and distant relatives.
If your circle is a wealthy or influential one you will be constantly asked to use the relationships in your circle(s) to help and influence people who might need help from your circle. One ahs an obligation to use the circle where possible. The use of one's circle is in itself an expansion of your own circle.
Creating a debt by helping someone inside or outside your circle creates a future opportunity to call that debt for a future purpose or requirement. Some will deliberately "help" others in order to create this future opportunity. Conversely some will refuse help so as not to have an obligation to return the favor in the future.
There are government circles - helpful with business.
There are circles that revolve around police and public security - useful with run ins with the "authorities"
There are circles for education - useful in getting children into better schools.
Foreigners can be a circle - useful for international business and overseas study.
The wide and more influential the circle the more one is able to accomplish. Success usually never depends on one's own individual ability but rather on the strength of one's relationship circle. In fact individuals are often judged based on the quality of their circle rather than their individual abilities and personal successes.
Creating a circle requires investment in time and money. It takes time to meet people and get to know them. It takes time to create debts and have them repaid. Circles grow over years and years of interaction and effort.
Creating a circle also costs money. Mostly for meals, drinks and other entertainment. Investing in a circle brings future rewards not immediate rewards. But when a circle is operating a peak efficiency it can produce immediate results.
One of the most powerful circle in China comes through one's education. From elementary school students are bound together in "classes." Each class has a class monitor who acts as the class leader. These are usually the best students. From this time forward the circle created with "classmates" becomes a baseline circle on which new circles are created.
High School classmate, University classmate, these are very common and critically important circles. Individuals utilize these circles for years and years to expand their own circles and create opportunities to accomplish tasks.
Another extremely strong circle is one's hometown. If two Chinese are from the same hometown and speak the same dialect then they are instant friends and instantly share their circles. Since nearly every Chinese speaks both Mandarin and their local dialect, this bond is extremely strong and can be extremely useful.
The essential point here is to understand that China is not monolithic. It is instead a collection of very diverse circles operating together for both personal and mutual benefit.
If one is doing business in China one needs one's own circle. Without a circle one remains on the outside circle-less !
An influential circle can have many different types of members with different backgrounds and different circles of their own. A circle begins with one's family and extended family and widens out to include close and distant relatives.
If your circle is a wealthy or influential one you will be constantly asked to use the relationships in your circle(s) to help and influence people who might need help from your circle. One ahs an obligation to use the circle where possible. The use of one's circle is in itself an expansion of your own circle.
Creating a debt by helping someone inside or outside your circle creates a future opportunity to call that debt for a future purpose or requirement. Some will deliberately "help" others in order to create this future opportunity. Conversely some will refuse help so as not to have an obligation to return the favor in the future.
There are government circles - helpful with business.
There are circles that revolve around police and public security - useful with run ins with the "authorities"
There are circles for education - useful in getting children into better schools.
Foreigners can be a circle - useful for international business and overseas study.
The wide and more influential the circle the more one is able to accomplish. Success usually never depends on one's own individual ability but rather on the strength of one's relationship circle. In fact individuals are often judged based on the quality of their circle rather than their individual abilities and personal successes.
Creating a circle requires investment in time and money. It takes time to meet people and get to know them. It takes time to create debts and have them repaid. Circles grow over years and years of interaction and effort.
Creating a circle also costs money. Mostly for meals, drinks and other entertainment. Investing in a circle brings future rewards not immediate rewards. But when a circle is operating a peak efficiency it can produce immediate results.
One of the most powerful circle in China comes through one's education. From elementary school students are bound together in "classes." Each class has a class monitor who acts as the class leader. These are usually the best students. From this time forward the circle created with "classmates" becomes a baseline circle on which new circles are created.
High School classmate, University classmate, these are very common and critically important circles. Individuals utilize these circles for years and years to expand their own circles and create opportunities to accomplish tasks.
Another extremely strong circle is one's hometown. If two Chinese are from the same hometown and speak the same dialect then they are instant friends and instantly share their circles. Since nearly every Chinese speaks both Mandarin and their local dialect, this bond is extremely strong and can be extremely useful.
The essential point here is to understand that China is not monolithic. It is instead a collection of very diverse circles operating together for both personal and mutual benefit.
If one is doing business in China one needs one's own circle. Without a circle one remains on the outside circle-less !
Monday, January 5, 2009
Another Perspective From Another Blog on China !!
The China Economy For Foreign Companies
Posted by Dan on January 4, 2009 at 01:13 PM
I was interviewed a couple weeks ago by a reporter who wanted to know what impact the declining economy in China was having on my law firm's clients. I told her none. I said that so far, anyway, not a single client had even mentioned China's declining economy as a factor in its decision-making. But I then said that I had also not really been asking and that about half our clients are not in manufacturing, and that virtually none of our manufacturing clients make low end products like $2 toys, socks, or costume jewelry. I also mentioned that less than ten percent of our manufacturing clients are in Guangdong Province, which seems to have been hardest hit.
Since that interview, I have conducted an extremely unscientific client survey regarding our clients' China plans. This survey was of about fifteen clients (to tell you how unscientific it was, I took no notes), eleven of which are American, one Korean, one Spanish, one Mexican, and one German. About half are in manufacturing and none make what anyone would describe as a low end good like a cheap toy or jewelry. I asked them how their China business was going, "in light of the economic downturn." I also asked them if the downturn was going to cause them to reduce or eliminate their China presence. Lastly, I asked them what the would be doing differently in China in 2009 due to the economic downturn. Their answers were all pretty much the same.
They said that China's downturn had made them look more carefully at their China expansion and hiring plans. They said they were going to be very "cautious" and "careful" in 2009 with respect to expansion and hiring. Many of them (5 or 6?) said they had an "official" hiring freeze in place for the first six months of 2009 or the entire year. Two said they were going to expand faster than anticipated in China because they saw now as the best time to get a jump on their less well-funded rivals. All of them said they had no concrete plans to get out of China, but one worried that the company's overall problems might force an ill-advised China exit. Many of them responded to my question about their leaving China by asking me "and go where?" I got the following comments (these are from the last few months, not just from these 15 or so companies):
1. This downturn is good. It is going to bring us stability. We had been losing 2-3 good employees every month and that has stopped completely.
2. I hated China's new labor law and I hated how employees were able to hold this over our heads. The power has shifted.
3. I have enjoyed my last six months in China more than any six month period in my 20 years here. We are a small fish in a big pond (they are in Shanghai) and I feel like the government actually appreciates that we are sticking it out and have not laid off anyone.
4. China is the only country in which our company is still doing well.
5. We had made some terrible deals because we had no choice. We have been able to renogoiate nearly all of them. Our costs are down, and our sales are down, but our profits have remained the same.
6. We looked at Vietnam and really liked what we saw, and we definitely plan to add that to our China operations eventually, but nobody wants to spend the money to get set up there right now. Maybe in a year or two.
7. I'm just glad we are no longer in Thailand.
8. Our R&D in China has been fantastic. We want to expand and we should be expanding, but the company has a complete freeze on anything new right now. I see this as a huge mistake and one that is going to cost us millions down the road.
9. Our sales are down 20% worldwide. Nobody wants to leave China because we all know we will make good money here soon, but the question is whether the home office will be able to subsidize us until we do.
Upside Down - Rightside Up
Nearly everyone is discussing how the first half of 2009 will develop. Will the Chinese economy continue its slide ? Will the US planned stimulus package ignite consumption in the US and reignite the Chinese export engine ? How will the globalized economy re-balance itself ?
As a student of history I find the current interdependent economic relationship between China and the United States to be a revolutionary "turning of the tables."
Think back to 2006, 2007 and early 2008 when the western Media was shouting as loud as possible about all of the problems in China. Human Rights problems. Centralized economic planning problems. IP theft and unfair treatment of private entrepreneurs. One Family Child policies.....the list goes on and on.
Now the table is upside down.
Western countries and particularly the United States "NEED" China's economic output. They need China's contribution to the global GDP. They need China to be stable and productive not introspective and unstable.
Private business around the world operate on a base of cordial government-to-government relationships. The US and China have an historic opportunity to become true partners. Together these two countries could single handedly create the spark needed to restart the global economy.
China is already the single largest underwriter of the US deficit. Why not build on this relationship by creating additional cross-national investment opportunities ?
US technology is driving the Chinese high technology sector. Why not open up this channel even more by providing subsidies and other incentives for companies to export more technology to China ?
There are many ways that these two nations can work together. If Obama gets the good advice that he deserves as the "Change" president he will look beyond the media hype of communism and democracy and focus on strengthening people's daily lives through both domestic and international programs.
The US is at risk of isolating itself. China has opened up to the world. isn't this an opportunity for a new kind of global growth ?
There is no other country in the world better positioned to be a productive trade and economic partner with the United States other than China ! We all hope Obama comes to China soon and starts the process of "change."
As a student of history I find the current interdependent economic relationship between China and the United States to be a revolutionary "turning of the tables."
Think back to 2006, 2007 and early 2008 when the western Media was shouting as loud as possible about all of the problems in China. Human Rights problems. Centralized economic planning problems. IP theft and unfair treatment of private entrepreneurs. One Family Child policies.....the list goes on and on.
Now the table is upside down.
Western countries and particularly the United States "NEED" China's economic output. They need China's contribution to the global GDP. They need China to be stable and productive not introspective and unstable.
Private business around the world operate on a base of cordial government-to-government relationships. The US and China have an historic opportunity to become true partners. Together these two countries could single handedly create the spark needed to restart the global economy.
China is already the single largest underwriter of the US deficit. Why not build on this relationship by creating additional cross-national investment opportunities ?
US technology is driving the Chinese high technology sector. Why not open up this channel even more by providing subsidies and other incentives for companies to export more technology to China ?
There are many ways that these two nations can work together. If Obama gets the good advice that he deserves as the "Change" president he will look beyond the media hype of communism and democracy and focus on strengthening people's daily lives through both domestic and international programs.
The US is at risk of isolating itself. China has opened up to the world. isn't this an opportunity for a new kind of global growth ?
There is no other country in the world better positioned to be a productive trade and economic partner with the United States other than China ! We all hope Obama comes to China soon and starts the process of "change."
Sunday, January 4, 2009
China is Catching An Economic Cold
Unlike in the United States where a financial crisis spawned a credit freeze and then an entire economic slowdown, the situation in China is quite different.
China has not experienced a financial crisis nor a financial system meltdown. Rather China's current economic problems are focused on a rapid and dramatic slowdown in manufacturing output. Manufacturing output has contracted for five months in a row and is expected to continue to contract in the first half of 2009.
Simply put the majority of the customers for China's manufacturing output were in the US, Europe and Japan. Now that these customers are not purchasing goods at the same rate output is falling. No customers, no production...just inventory.
With factories slowing down or closing suppliers of raw materials are also reducing output as demand shrinks and prices fall.
Back when recessions were more easily forecast analysts would generally be able to predict when a recovery wold begin. The problem with today's predicament is that the entire world system has slowed to a snail's pace.
The world economy needs a catalyst to spark demand and get the system rolling again.
It seems that China's major $600 billion stimulus package could prove to be a possible stimulus however it may be misdirected because the factories that are closing were primarily shipping product to international customers. A Chinese domestic stimulus package that does not stimulate consumer purchasing may not be the answer.
On the other side of the Pacific the new President (Obama) is pushing for an even larger stimulus package which may come in at $1 Trillion dollars. This package will certainly be targeted at consumers in order to encourage them to start purchasing again. It is unclear if it will be successful and how long it will take to reach the heart of the problem.
Regardless, the first six months of 2009 look like a very difficult time in China. The stimulus packages will not take root that quickly, production will continue to slow, unemployment will rise. Until customers start showing up again it will remain difficult.
On the good news front....the Chinese government has implemented significant reforms in the Real Estate sector which should stimulate the purchase of new apartments or second/third apartments. This could provide an economic stimulus to industry sectors associated with the Real Estate market.
For now Chinese consumers are holding on to their cash waiting for the storm to pass. When it does pass I firmly believe there will be a tidal wave of new investment coming from pent up demand for higher returns.
The next bubble ?....
China has not experienced a financial crisis nor a financial system meltdown. Rather China's current economic problems are focused on a rapid and dramatic slowdown in manufacturing output. Manufacturing output has contracted for five months in a row and is expected to continue to contract in the first half of 2009.
Simply put the majority of the customers for China's manufacturing output were in the US, Europe and Japan. Now that these customers are not purchasing goods at the same rate output is falling. No customers, no production...just inventory.
With factories slowing down or closing suppliers of raw materials are also reducing output as demand shrinks and prices fall.
Back when recessions were more easily forecast analysts would generally be able to predict when a recovery wold begin. The problem with today's predicament is that the entire world system has slowed to a snail's pace.
The world economy needs a catalyst to spark demand and get the system rolling again.
It seems that China's major $600 billion stimulus package could prove to be a possible stimulus however it may be misdirected because the factories that are closing were primarily shipping product to international customers. A Chinese domestic stimulus package that does not stimulate consumer purchasing may not be the answer.
On the other side of the Pacific the new President (Obama) is pushing for an even larger stimulus package which may come in at $1 Trillion dollars. This package will certainly be targeted at consumers in order to encourage them to start purchasing again. It is unclear if it will be successful and how long it will take to reach the heart of the problem.
Regardless, the first six months of 2009 look like a very difficult time in China. The stimulus packages will not take root that quickly, production will continue to slow, unemployment will rise. Until customers start showing up again it will remain difficult.
On the good news front....the Chinese government has implemented significant reforms in the Real Estate sector which should stimulate the purchase of new apartments or second/third apartments. This could provide an economic stimulus to industry sectors associated with the Real Estate market.
For now Chinese consumers are holding on to their cash waiting for the storm to pass. When it does pass I firmly believe there will be a tidal wave of new investment coming from pent up demand for higher returns.
The next bubble ?....
Saturday, January 3, 2009
The Rush Has Begun
The rush to return home to rural hometowns has started in China - a bit early this year because of the economic slowdown.
18 million people will travel by train between now and early February. That is an 18% increase over last year.
That is nearly equivalent to the population of Shanghai ! It is three times the population of New York City !
Beijing railway departures have already reached 300,000 per day ! Railway stations are selling 30,000 to 50,000 tickets per day !
These numbers are amazing by western standards. It is no wonder that the central government continues to invest in building more railways and more subways !
18 million people will travel by train between now and early February. That is an 18% increase over last year.
That is nearly equivalent to the population of Shanghai ! It is three times the population of New York City !
Beijing railway departures have already reached 300,000 per day ! Railway stations are selling 30,000 to 50,000 tickets per day !
These numbers are amazing by western standards. It is no wonder that the central government continues to invest in building more railways and more subways !
Friday, January 2, 2009
Red and Expert
During the Cultural Revolution there was a common slogan calling on people to be both "Red" and "Expert."
To be "Red" meant to be politically correct - to support the revolutionary objectives as defined by the Communist Party. These political objectives changed frequently so to be "Red" was quite a difficult task. People were challenged to "test" the political winds on a daily basis. often when the winds changed the definition of "Red" shifted from white ro black and from black to white.
To be "Expert" meant to be a specialist. An expert in a particular area. An expert was someone who was recognized as having specific and unique skills.
The balance between "Red" and "Expert" was less of a balance and more of a process to maintain one's "expert" status while being acceptably politically "Red."
I have always been puzzled by this until a friend pointed out that the real purpose of being both "Red and Expert" was to find a socially and politically acceptable balance which enabled an individual to maintain their social ranking as a non-political person in a highly political environment.
Many years later I have come to understand that the real significance of this "red and Expert" slogan was to provide a new social stratum. In Chinese society people are stratified from birth into a "track" which will potentially define the remainder of their lives.
Examples include:
Rural vs. Urban:
To be born into a rural family defines one's future in nearly every way. Rural Chinese have a specific definition. They are considered to be less educated, less sophisticated, occupying a lower social position than their urban cousins.
To be born into an urban family provides one with an a priori more beneficial position in Chinese society. One has more choices. One has more options. Rural Chinese respect urbanites but they also resent them.
This conflict is in many ways a natural one in many societies around the world. What differs in China is that there are fewer options for rural Chinese to cross over into an urban environment. A motivated rural young man or woman dreams of moving to the city but is often stymied by prejudice and an inability to shift their household registration to an urban location.
Higher Education vs. Vocational Education:
There are not enough seats in Chinese universities to satisfy the demand from applicants. There is not enough support from the government (education is still a government activity). There are not enough qualified teachers and professors.
Thus, a rigorous examination system is used to filter out "qualified students." The university entrance examination filter begins in elementary school. Students who are selected to enroll in "Key" schools are already on the university track. Movement from one grade to another is determined by year-end examinations. Good grades result in continuing to be tracked in the "Key" school path.
Once students reach their junior year in high school they spend their final year preparing for the university examinations. During regular classes and after school these students are among the most pressurized students in China. The family's future is dependent on how well students test !
The over emphasis on testing results in an education system characterized by memorization rather than creative learning. There is no time for creative learning when one's future is dependent on good test grades.
Rural students have, by definition, less access to the university track. There are however "affirmative action" like policies for minorities as well as poorer areas of China. Regardless of these policies students proceed only by achieving the highest possible test scores.
Family Structures:
The family in China is the basic social structure. Each member of the family acts within a predetermined hierarchy. This hierarchy is 3,000 years old. It is rooted in deference for elders. Each member of the family has a clear role to play in this structure.
From the time a new child is born into a family they are taught the roles and responsibilities of how the family structure works. Whether it is deference to grandparents or responsibility to support parents in their older age the roles and responsibilities are taught and reinforced inside the family on a daily basis. Thus the ties that bind a family together are learned by children as part of their upbringing. It becomes a natural part of the family rhythm.
Generalist vs. Specialist:
There are very few generalists in China. The population is too large. There is no need for people to be competent or capable across many different skills or abilities. It is more common that individuals are specialists in their viewpoints and capabilities.
The generalist or the liberal educated well rounded person is much less common in China.
The specialist who understands every detail of a skill or ability is everywhere in China. What ever the skill the person is considered an expert but ask that person about broader subjects and there is limited knowledge or ability.
In the west where the Individual is pre-eminent one succeeds by being more of a generalist because there is more emphasis on self-reliance.
In China where the Group is pre-eminent one succeeds by providing a key specialized skill or ability that can be woven together with the other members of the group to produce a positive outcome.
Whether one seeks to be Red or Expert, the choice is most likely based on one's surroundings - one's social environment.
To be "Red" meant to be politically correct - to support the revolutionary objectives as defined by the Communist Party. These political objectives changed frequently so to be "Red" was quite a difficult task. People were challenged to "test" the political winds on a daily basis. often when the winds changed the definition of "Red" shifted from white ro black and from black to white.
To be "Expert" meant to be a specialist. An expert in a particular area. An expert was someone who was recognized as having specific and unique skills.
The balance between "Red" and "Expert" was less of a balance and more of a process to maintain one's "expert" status while being acceptably politically "Red."
I have always been puzzled by this until a friend pointed out that the real purpose of being both "Red and Expert" was to find a socially and politically acceptable balance which enabled an individual to maintain their social ranking as a non-political person in a highly political environment.
Many years later I have come to understand that the real significance of this "red and Expert" slogan was to provide a new social stratum. In Chinese society people are stratified from birth into a "track" which will potentially define the remainder of their lives.
Examples include:
Rural vs. Urban:
To be born into a rural family defines one's future in nearly every way. Rural Chinese have a specific definition. They are considered to be less educated, less sophisticated, occupying a lower social position than their urban cousins.
To be born into an urban family provides one with an a priori more beneficial position in Chinese society. One has more choices. One has more options. Rural Chinese respect urbanites but they also resent them.
This conflict is in many ways a natural one in many societies around the world. What differs in China is that there are fewer options for rural Chinese to cross over into an urban environment. A motivated rural young man or woman dreams of moving to the city but is often stymied by prejudice and an inability to shift their household registration to an urban location.
Higher Education vs. Vocational Education:
There are not enough seats in Chinese universities to satisfy the demand from applicants. There is not enough support from the government (education is still a government activity). There are not enough qualified teachers and professors.
Thus, a rigorous examination system is used to filter out "qualified students." The university entrance examination filter begins in elementary school. Students who are selected to enroll in "Key" schools are already on the university track. Movement from one grade to another is determined by year-end examinations. Good grades result in continuing to be tracked in the "Key" school path.
Once students reach their junior year in high school they spend their final year preparing for the university examinations. During regular classes and after school these students are among the most pressurized students in China. The family's future is dependent on how well students test !
The over emphasis on testing results in an education system characterized by memorization rather than creative learning. There is no time for creative learning when one's future is dependent on good test grades.
Rural students have, by definition, less access to the university track. There are however "affirmative action" like policies for minorities as well as poorer areas of China. Regardless of these policies students proceed only by achieving the highest possible test scores.
Family Structures:
The family in China is the basic social structure. Each member of the family acts within a predetermined hierarchy. This hierarchy is 3,000 years old. It is rooted in deference for elders. Each member of the family has a clear role to play in this structure.
From the time a new child is born into a family they are taught the roles and responsibilities of how the family structure works. Whether it is deference to grandparents or responsibility to support parents in their older age the roles and responsibilities are taught and reinforced inside the family on a daily basis. Thus the ties that bind a family together are learned by children as part of their upbringing. It becomes a natural part of the family rhythm.
Generalist vs. Specialist:
There are very few generalists in China. The population is too large. There is no need for people to be competent or capable across many different skills or abilities. It is more common that individuals are specialists in their viewpoints and capabilities.
The generalist or the liberal educated well rounded person is much less common in China.
The specialist who understands every detail of a skill or ability is everywhere in China. What ever the skill the person is considered an expert but ask that person about broader subjects and there is limited knowledge or ability.
In the west where the Individual is pre-eminent one succeeds by being more of a generalist because there is more emphasis on self-reliance.
In China where the Group is pre-eminent one succeeds by providing a key specialized skill or ability that can be woven together with the other members of the group to produce a positive outcome.
Whether one seeks to be Red or Expert, the choice is most likely based on one's surroundings - one's social environment.
Happy New Year - 2009 Year of the (Earth) Ox
The new year is upon us. When Chinese New Year arrives on January 26th it will officially be the Year of the Ox. People born in the Year of the Ox are typically described as:
"The Ox is the sign of prosperity through fortitude and hard work. This powerful sign is a born leader, being quite dependable and possessing an innate ability to achieve great things. As one might guess, such people are dependable, calm, and modest. Like their animal namesake, the Ox is unswervingly patient, tireless in their work, and capable of enduring any amount of hardship without complaint."
The world will need strong "Ox" people in the coming years to help put the global economy back together.
Given the after effects of the 2008 global financial and economic crisis the coming year is going to be more of a challenge for all of us. The delayed effect of the credit meltdown, the stock market "crash" but more importantly the crisis embodied in a loss of faith in what the future holds for our economy! We just do not know what the next quarter will bring. ! We need more "Ox" people !
From Shanghai 2009 seems like a year of possibilities. A year that leaves behind the problems of 2008:
The freak snow storm in south China in January.
The earthquake in Sichuan in March.
Unrest in Tibet in the spring
A troubled run up to the Olympics
Then the Olympics (a success) dragged the Beijing economy to a standstill
Then the financial crisis began to hit southern China
And finally economic challenges began to hit more broadly across China.
For a year that ended in the number "8" 2008 did not hold up to expectations. We can only hope that the imperial lucky number "9" will bring better luck to everyone !
Regardless the celestial predictors will be very busy between now and January 26th when the year of the Ox starts !
"The Ox is the sign of prosperity through fortitude and hard work. This powerful sign is a born leader, being quite dependable and possessing an innate ability to achieve great things. As one might guess, such people are dependable, calm, and modest. Like their animal namesake, the Ox is unswervingly patient, tireless in their work, and capable of enduring any amount of hardship without complaint."
The world will need strong "Ox" people in the coming years to help put the global economy back together.
Given the after effects of the 2008 global financial and economic crisis the coming year is going to be more of a challenge for all of us. The delayed effect of the credit meltdown, the stock market "crash" but more importantly the crisis embodied in a loss of faith in what the future holds for our economy! We just do not know what the next quarter will bring. ! We need more "Ox" people !
From Shanghai 2009 seems like a year of possibilities. A year that leaves behind the problems of 2008:
The freak snow storm in south China in January.
The earthquake in Sichuan in March.
Unrest in Tibet in the spring
A troubled run up to the Olympics
Then the Olympics (a success) dragged the Beijing economy to a standstill
Then the financial crisis began to hit southern China
And finally economic challenges began to hit more broadly across China.
For a year that ended in the number "8" 2008 did not hold up to expectations. We can only hope that the imperial lucky number "9" will bring better luck to everyone !
Regardless the celestial predictors will be very busy between now and January 26th when the year of the Ox starts !
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