1978-2008 - 30 years of Reform

I did not arrive in China until the spring of 1980 - two years after the economic reforms of the past 30 years started. China was a poor and extremely underdeveloped nation. It is no longer such a place.

For most of 2008 Chinese TV has had a series of special programs praising these past 30 years. As December nears its end the "summing up" has reached a crescendo of sorts with a formal meeting held in Beijing. The meeting's purpose was to state clearly that the reforms have been successful and will continue but that the mistakes of the West will not be duplicated in China.

The key question is will continued economic reform in China be enough or will dramatic political reforms be necessary to sustain China's growth into a world power ?

With nearly 30 years of experience living and working in China my hard fast judgment is that China will never become a western-style or American-style Democracy. The "magic" which is the essence of the American system is nearly impossible to duplicate in China. Chinese history is just too rooted in the present day. The society still defines itself based on its historical values - replicating the successes of the apst in order to ensure a stable future.

This is not entirely a bad thing. Under the current reform direction the daily lives of hundreds of millions of Chinese have been substantially improved. In fact have been improved beyond everyone's imagination.

So what is more important in the end ? Economic freedom with a small does of political reform or Political freedom and a dose of economic modernization ? This may too simple an analysis but in the end the man and woman on the street make this decision. What can they tolerate from the government in order to "protect" and advance their personal and family well being ?

In China today the middle class and a large portion of the poorer constituencies have cleared voted. Improve our economic situation, loosen controls and take a moderating political position and we should be fine.

The other side of the coin is....what if there is an abrupt change in political policy or a crisis that preempts the progress of the last 30 years ? This does make people nervous and is the main reason why so many wealthy Chinese continue to find ways to get a foreign passport. This trend will continue and perhaps speed up.

President Hu Jintao's recent statement is a very clear indication of how the government sees this issue:

"[The] path of socialism with Chinese characteristics, led by the party, its policies and its theories, is correct," he said.

I can certainly say that Chinese of economic means are able to eat where they want, mostly live where they want, go where they want.....the key is that with economic progress comes choice and with choice comes new ideas...this is the path China is following.